AleaSoft analyzes the behavior of the markets of fuels, rights of emissions of CO 2 and electricity in Europe during the last week. The decrease in prices in most European markets is noteworthy due to a decrease in electricity demand and also in the prices of gas, coal and CO 2 emission rights . For its part, Brent oil has continued to set maximums.
Brent, fuels and CO 2
The price of Brent oil for April 2019 in the futures market ICE ended last week at $ 67.12 / bbl, in the session on February 22. Since Wednesday, February 20, it has been negotiating above $ 67 / bbl. According to AleaSoft , the positive sentiment about the development of the negotiations regarding the US-China trade dispute, the possibility that the United States will increase sanctions on Venezuela and the production cuts of the OPEC countries and their allies are the fundamental reasons for the bullish climate that the market is currently experiencing. In AleaSoft it is not ruled out that this week the 68 $ / bbl will be reached.
The TTF gas futures in the ICE market for March closed on Friday, February 22 with the minimum price this year, of € 17.23 / MWh, continuing the downward trend experienced by the market since September last year. You have to go back to September 2017 to find a lower value.
The price of API 2 coal futures for the following month in the ICE market remained stable last week of February 18, between $ 73 and $ 74 / t.
For its part, the price of the CO 2 emission rights futures for the December 2019 reference contract in the EEX market ended last week, on Friday, February 22, at € 18.93 / MWh, after having reached on February 21 the minimum value since early November of last year, of 18.82 € / MWh. The threat of a surplus of certificates of facilities in the United Kingdom due to the possibility of a Brexit without an agreement on March 29, as well as Germany’s plans to close all coal plants before 2038 are, according to AleaSoft , some reasons that lead to this decrease in prices.
European electricity markets
Last week of February 18 the average price of most of the European markets fell compared to the previous week of February 11, from -0.7% of the MIBEL Portugal market to -8.2% of the EPEX SPOT NL market from the Netherlands . The exceptions were the EPEX SPOT Germany market, which rose 1.6%, although it ranked as the second lowest price in Europe, behind the Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries, and Italy’s IPEX, which rose 3.1% and It was the most expensive in Europe.
According AleaSoft , the decline in electricity demand because temperatures were mostly higher last week, coupled with lower prices of gas , coal and emission rights CO 2 are the main reasons for the decline in prices. In the case of the German and Italian markets, lower renewable production , both wind and solar , are the causes of the increase in prices.
In AleaSoft, it is expected that in this last week of February most markets will maintain this slight downward trend.
Last week, on February 18, the European electricity futures markets continued the downward trend they have been experiencing since the end of last year.
The futures of Germany for March of this year in the EEX market closed on Friday, February 22 at € 39.07 / MWh, the lowest value since this product was negotiated. Similarly, the future of France for March in the EEX market reached the lowest historical value of this product of € 42.30 / MWh on Friday.
Electricity futures for March in Spain in the EEX and OMIP markets , and those of Portugal in the OMIP market, also reached the historic minimum value of 49.00 € / MWh, 48.90 € / MWh and 48 on Friday, € 53 / MWh respectively. In the OMIP market, for both Spain and Portugal, the price fell 3 € / MWh compared to Monday 18 February when they closed at € 51.90 / MWh and € 51.53 / MWh respectively.
The futures of the United Kingdom , Belgium and the Netherlands in the ICE market also continue with the downward trend. Last Friday, February 22, the contract of March 2019 closed at 47.92 GBP / MWh, 43.63 € / MWh and 43.53 € / MWh respectively.
Nordic futures, both in the Nasdaq and ICE markets, closed on Friday, February 22, at € 39.65 / MWh and € 39.70 / MWh, respectively, € 16 / MWh lower than the values traded. month, which were around € 55 / MWh.
The futures of Italy for March of 2019 although they are also following a declining trajectory, last week were characterized by stability. In the EEX market last week prices were around € 54 / MWh and in the MME market of GME , they remained similar to those of two weeks ago, at € 54.40 / MWh.
Wind and solar production
This last week of February 18 to 24, renewable production in Europe has been marked by the decline in wind production . The most important fall was recorded in the Italian market with a 41% reduction in wind production compared to the previous week of February 11. The fall in other countries has been lower, but of the same order: 30% less in the Iberian Peninsula, 24% less in France and 18% less in Germany.
AleaSoft forecasts indicate that for this week the trend of wind production will be up, except in Germany, where production could fall.
The analysis carried out by AleaSoft of the solar production , which includes both the photovoltaic and the solar thermal , shows a last week of February 18 very similar to the previous one of February 11 in Germany, with a symbolic increase of 0.4%, but with more pronounced falls in Spain, of -13% and Italy, of -7.9%.
According to AleaSoft forecasts , the trend of solar production could be markedly up this week, as the increase in sunshine hours will be reinforced by favorable weather.