A new annual report by the Global Carbon Project predicts that global CO2 emissions will increase by 0.6% in 2019. Despite the decrease in coal consumption, emissions continue to increase thanks to the strong growth in the use of natural gas and oil.
This is slower than in 2018. This lower growth rate is due to a substantial decline in coal use in the EU and the US, and slower growth in coal use in China and India compared to recent years. Lower economic growth has also contributed to this trend.
Atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged 407.4 parts per million in 2018 and is projected to increase by 2.2 ppm in 2019 (+1.8 to +2.6 ppm) to about 410 ppm.
“The weak growth in carbon dioxide emissions in 2019 was due to an unexpected decline in global coal use, but this fall was insufficient to overcome the solid growth in natural gas and oil consumption,” said Glen Peters, director of research at CICERO.
“The global commitments made in Paris in 2015 to reduce emissions are still not matched by proportionate actions,” said Peters, “despite political rhetoric and the rapid growth of low-carbon technologies such as solar and wind power, electric vehicles and batteries, global fossil CO2 emissions are likely to be more than 4% higher in 2019 than in 2015, when the Paris Accord was adopted.
According to IPCC report 1.5, limiting emissions between 420 billion and 570 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide would give the world’s governments the best chance of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5℃
In the EU, emissions have fallen steadily by -1.4% per year over the last decade and are projected to fall by 1.7% in 2019 (range: -3.4% to +0.1%). Despite a projected decline in coal use of around 10%, the growth in oil and natural gas consumption will cause the rate of emission reduction to be lower than in 2018 (-2.1%).
“Carbon dioxide emissions must fall dramatically if the world is to meet the ‘well below 2°C’ mark set in the Paris Agreement, and each year with rising emissions makes that goal even harder to achieve,” said Robbie Andrew, senior researcher at the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research in Norway.